Patriot Sprint Triathlon - Pre-race Predictions

Sunday is my first triathlon, the Patriot Sprint Tri in Williamsburg, VA: 750m swimming, 12 miles biking, 3.11 miles running. Below are my estimated times if I'm having a Great day, Good day, or Bad day. I compared these times to the results from last year's race, so the number in parenthesis next to each time is where that time would rank me in the 2011 race (out of 304 male participants). The Total time listed includes an estimated 7:00 total transition time.

Great Day:

• Swim: 16:00 (133)
• Bike: 36:00 (61)
• Run: 26:20 (175)
• Total: 1:25:20 (124) (7th out of 13 in the 25-29 age group)

The swim time is a shot in the dark. A few weeks ago I swam 750m in 16:13, and open water swimming is supposedly tougher than pool swimming. Wearing my triathlon shorts instead of swim shorts will make me a bit faster, but I'm leaning on the conservative side for this. 36:00 for the bike would give me an even 20mph pace, something I was only 5 seconds per mile away from during my race simulation. Most of the bike is on roads surrounded by woods, so wind shouldn't inhibit me much. I chose 26:20 for the run because that's my 5K personal record from last fall, and I think I can beat it.

Good Day: 

• Swim: 17:00 (183)
• Bike: 38:00 (124)
• Run: 28:00 (216)
• Total: 1:30:00 (173) (9th out of 13 in my age group)

Still guessing on the swim time. 38:00 on the bike is an average of 3:10/mile, which would still be my 2nd fastest pace ever, though I know I can go faster than that with race-day adrenaline pumping. A 28:00 5K is an average of 9:00/mile, something I feel is totally doable. 

Bad Day:

• Swim: 18:00 (215)
• Bike: 40:00 (172)
• Run: 29:30 (241)
• Total: 1:34:30 (212) (11th out of 13 in my age group)

A swim time of 18:00 wouldn't surprise me too much, but a lot would have to go wrong for my bike and run times to be in this range. 40:00 biking time is barely faster than my Z2 pace, and would be an absolute failure in a race. A run of 29:30 is a 9:30/mile run pace, which I may have to fall back on if I push too hard on the bike or cramp up. 

Looking at my estimates compared to the 2011 rankings it's clear that the field is full of fast runners, and I need to mentally prepare myself for being passed a lot in the run leg. But hey, it's my first triathlon so my main goal is to have fun and not look stupid.

After limited exercise last week, and then the half-marathon on Sunday, I wasn't sure how much to exercise this week. I took Monday off, biked 10.30 miles on Tuesday, took Wednesday off (wasn't feeling well), and then ran a 5K on Thursday. The biking was just easy spinning, but the run was at a good speed: race pace for the first mile, slowing down slightly for the remainder. I'll probably bike a bit tonight just to keep my legs warm.

Stay tuned for pictures from the race expo tomorrow!