Crawlin' Crab Half Marathon - Race Predictions

Well it's the day before Crawlin' Crab Half Marathon, and it's time to discuss what I think I can get out of my body. Here's what the weather forecast is:

Oh boy. I was hoping for the cold weather, but throw in the 70% chance of rain and I'm not sure whether or not to wear a jacket. My Vibrams are extra thin, so any amount of rain means I'll be running with wet feet. With that in mind, here are my predictions:

Great Day: 1:55:00 (8:47/mile)

This is significantly faster than my 2 hour goal, but I really have no idea how my body will react to the cold weather. A 1:55:00 time means running at a 9:00/mile pace for the first 7 miles, and then kicking it up to 8:30/mile for the remainder. 

Good Day: 2:00:00 (9:09/mile)

This is my true goal, so it feels strange to say that's achieving it would only be a "good" day. This is what I've trained for in the last month, so anything slower would feel like a failure.

Bad Day: 2:05:00 (9:32/mile)

A few months ago this would have been a great day for me, but I've improved significantly and would be disappointed to see this time. Something would have to go wrong (cramps, foot pain, GI issues) for this to happen. 

Since this is a new race, the packet pick-up expo was pretty small. Maybe 15 vendors, nothing very interesting. There was a Livestrong stand selling bracelets for $1. My old one broke, and Bre has meant to buy one, so I asked if they took credit card (I had no cash on me) and they laughed at the idea of charging a credit card for only $2 and gave them to me for free. Livestrong organization: you guys are classy.

As you can see in the photo above, I'm in Corral 1, up at the front. How intimidating! I may move back and start in Corral 2, just so I'm not getting passed by people for the first few miles.

Here's hoping the rain/wind isn't horrible!